Climate change fuels war in Africa

Global warming has been a major force behind civil war in Africa, research shows - and future climate change is likely to raise the number of people killed in conflict. Higher temperatures make food supply scarce which threatens 'economic welfare’ and increases the risk of conflict, says a US study.

Researchers looked back at 20 years of records on temperature and civil war across the continent, and found that conflict was about 50% more likely in unusually warm years. Climate was the driving force behind several recent conflicts in Africa, the team said. The fighting in Darfur in Sudan that according to UN figures has killed 200,000 people and forced two million more from their homes, was just one example from the researchers at the University of California Berkeley.Just a 1°C increase in temperature coincided with a 4.5 per cent increase in civil war violence in that year, they said. And when the researchers limited their study to look just at countries that have a history of conflict, the 1°C rise in temperatures led to a 49 per cent increase in civil violence.

Past research has shown an association between lack of rain and conflict, but this study, published in a science journal is thought to be the first clear evidence of a temperature link. "Studies show that crop yields in the region are really sensitive to small shifts in temperature, even of half a degree (celsius) or so," research leader Marshall Burke, from the University of California at Berkeley, told the BBC. "If the sub-Saharan climate continues to warm and little is done to help its countries better adapt to high temperatures, the human costs are likely to be staggering," he warned.

The report said that ‘governments and aid donors could help reduce conflict risk in Africa by improving the ability of African agriculture to deal with extreme heat. Such efforts could include developing better-adapted crop varieties, and giving farmers the knowledge and incentives to use them.’ Governments are due to debate how much money to put into helping African countries prepare for and adapt to impacts of climate change at next month's United Nations climate summit in Copenhagen.

Nana Poku, Professor of African Studies at the UK's Bradford University, suggested that the study flagged up the need to improve ways to avoid and resolve conflict in Africa. "I think it strengthens the argument for ensuring we compensate the developing world for climate change, especially Africa, and to begin looking at how we link environmental issues to governance," he said.

By Hayley Jarvis for SOS Children